Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 4.004830 4.421103 4.916778 5.568770 6.436054 7.608061 9.444570
2025-01-19 3.427264 3.909453 4.530373 5.437531 6.841407 9.228130 14.907308
2025-01-26 3.195750 3.737309 4.479346 5.667313 7.806727 12.674931 44.058094
2025-02-02 3.074570 3.674379 4.543575 6.065990 9.324298 21.152465 NaN
2025-02-09 2.905548 3.514132 4.424488 6.108307 10.169810 34.744409 NaN
2025-02-16 2.778441 3.395627 4.345278 6.193484 11.244119 110.076063 NaN
2025-02-23 2.604989 3.190578 4.096991 5.880641 10.898695 226.366608 NaN
2025-03-02 2.513111 3.099593 4.025032 5.913830 11.798664 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.424935 3.006372 3.937203 5.891416 12.527695 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.324178 2.886606 3.791528 5.710382 12.439376 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.285184 2.859776 3.804332 5.896844 14.454834 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.193690 2.744639 3.649724 5.652031 13.798566 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.097602 2.621169 3.478246 5.360546 12.813873 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 2.028654 2.538129 3.375058 5.226478 12.757471 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 2.008717 2.531494 3.408353 5.435715 15.317316 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 2.005383 2.550857 3.490882 5.799182 21.167023 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.967383 2.511146 3.457790 5.837610 24.307400 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.935758 2.480242 3.438975 5.914924 29.631788 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.872658 2.394384 3.307344 5.630394 25.339116 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.842353 2.362230 3.279569 5.660652 29.522629 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.809370 2.324192 3.237606 5.640219 33.044237 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.765487 2.266337 3.153215 5.474901 30.700686 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.753224 2.261126 3.173222 5.645168 46.685264 NaN NaN